The bad sanctions on Russia

A few thoughts about Western sanctions on Russia.
1. I think these sanctions are far more effective than commonly understood. The impact of the financial sanctions is obvious, likely to shave off 10% of GDP this year.
2. But the import sanctions are likely to be as effective & their effect will grow over time as production stops because of the absence of inputs. They could cut Russia’s GDP by another 10% to a total decline of 20% this year.
3. Western sanctions are undermining Russia’s infrastructure. Ericsson & Nokia have withdrawn & therefore also Huawei, undermining mobile networks. Siemens has withdrawn, hurting Russian railways. The 3 big oil service companies are leaving, impeding oil developments.
4. The really big sanction is of foreign insurance without which little can be done. Even without sanctions, risk-averse insurance companies are fleeing the market. Without insurance, little shipping or other transportation. Russia’s situation looks worse than Iran’s.
5. The UK, which seems most professional in its sanctions, has now sanctioned Putin’s lady Kabaeva & his four cousins who hold money for him. High time for the US & the EU to follow! According to WSJ, the NSC (=Jake Sullivan) vetoed the US sanctioning of Kabaeva. Absurd.

prof. Anders Aslund

Il suo lavoro si concentra sulla transizione economica dalle economie pianificate a quelle di mercato. Åslund ha servito come consulente economico per i governi di Kirghizistan, Russia e Ucraina e dal 2003 è stato direttore del programma russo ed eurasiatico presso il Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. Åslund era un sostenitore di riforme economiche precoci, globali e radicali in Russia e nell’Europa orientale. Ha lavorato al Peterson Institute for International Economics dal 2006 al 2015. Nel 2013, David Frum ha scritto che “Anders Aslund al Peterson Institute è uno dei massimi esperti mondiali sul crollo dell’economia pianificata sovietica”. Dal 2010 al 2013 e di nuovo nel 2022 ha contribuito a The Moscow Times, un quotidiano indipendente in lingua inglese. Il suo lavoro in Ucraina lo ha reso un critico del presidente ucraino Volodymyr Zelenskyy.